Main
Welterweight
Jake Matthews vs Anthony Rocco Martin
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Anthony Rocco Martin
73%
27%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
24
Age
Δ 5y
29
24-8
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-6
W3
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Matthews: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Martin: 25 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Anthony Rocco Martin
35
Sig strikes landed
35
72
Sig strikes attempted
91
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
148s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
Blue corner
W2
Anthony Rocco Martin
18-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—