Back to UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Main Heavyweight

Mark Hunt vs Justin Willis

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa ·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mark Hunt
Justin Willis
19% 81%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
45
Age
Δ 13y
31
13-15-1
Career record
Δ 37 pp
9-2
L2
Current streak
W3
17
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hunt: 19 sig / 0 TD · Willis: 59 sig / 0 TD
Mark Hunt
Justin Willis
22
Sig strikes landed
51
56
Sig strikes attempted
98
25
Total strikes landed
51
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
93s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Mark Hunt

"Super Samoan"
13-15-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45
In our database 17 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W3

Justin Willis

"Big Pretty"
9-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—