Back to UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Prelims1 Welterweight

Keita Nakamura vs Salim Touahri

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa ·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Keita Nakamura
Salim Touahri
87% 13%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
34-11-2
Career record
Δ 6 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Nakamura: 41 sig / 0 TD · Touahri: 34 sig / 0 TD
Keita Nakamura
Salim Touahri
34
Sig strikes landed
38
78
Sig strikes attempted
59
60
Total strikes landed
46
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
222s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Keita Nakamura

"K-Taro"
34-11-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
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W UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
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W UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
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L UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
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Blue corner
L1

Salim Touahri

"Grizzly"
10-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
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