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Prelims1 Flyweight

Elias Garcia vs Kai Kara-France

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa ·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Elias Garcia
Kai Kara-France
34% 66%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 16 sig / 1 TD · Kara-France: 86 sig / 0 TD
Elias Garcia
Kai Kara-France
24
Sig strikes landed
46
65
Sig strikes attempted
75
37
Total strikes landed
66
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
111s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Elias Garcia

6-3
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
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Blue corner

Kai Kara-France

"Don't Blink"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26