Back to UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
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Jimmy Crute vs Paul Craig

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa ·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jimmy Crute
Paul Craig
76% 24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
23
Age
Δ 8y
31
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Crute: 17 sig / 1 TD · Craig: 12 sig / 3 TD
Jimmy Crute
Paul Craig
27
Sig strikes landed
28
52
Sig strikes attempted
55
44
Total strikes landed
41
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
125s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jimmy Crute

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
W1

Paul Craig

"Bearjew"
18-10-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
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