Main
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua vs Tyson Pedro
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Tyson Pedro
63%
37%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
37
Age
Δ 10y
27
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Rua: 30 sig / 3 TD ·
Pedro: 31 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Tyson Pedro
31
Sig strikes landed
30
44
Sig strikes attempted
60
45
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tyson Pedro
10-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—