Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Vinicius Moreira
John Allan
47%
53%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Moreira: 34 sig / 3 TD ·
Allan: 30 sig / 0 TD
Vinicius Moreira
John Allan
34
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
67
49
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
152s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Vinicius Moreira
"Mamute"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
John Allan
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26