Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mabelly Lima
Luana Carolina
59%
41%
Why
24
Age
Δ 1y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lima: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Carolina: 85 sig / 0 TD
Mabelly Lima
Luana Carolina
33
Sig strikes landed
38
70
Sig strikes attempted
80
62
Total strikes landed
69
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
181s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mabelly Lima
0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Luana Carolina
"Dread"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25