Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Allan Nascimento
Raulian Paiva
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
27
Age
Δ 4y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Nascimento: 105 sig / 1 TD ·
Paiva: 81 sig / 1 TD
Allan Nascimento
Raulian Paiva
34
Sig strikes landed
37
78
Sig strikes attempted
82
49
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
163s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Allan Nascimento
"Puro Osso"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Raulian Paiva
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23