Prelims1
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Yuta Sasaki
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio
·Parque Roca Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Yuta Sasaki
78%
22%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
31-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
22-6-2
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pantoja: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Sasaki: 7 sig / 0 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Yuta Sasaki
32
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
99
63
Total strikes landed
46
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
205s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
W1
Yuta Sasaki
"Ulka"
22-6-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—