Prelims1
Welterweight
Michel Prazeres vs Bartosz Fabinski
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio
·Parque Roca Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michel Prazeres
Bartosz Fabinski
67%
33%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 8"
75"
37
Age
Δ 5y
33
27-4
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-5
W7
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Prazeres: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Fabinski: 1 sig / 0 TD
Michel Prazeres
Bartosz Fabinski
22
Sig strikes landed
19
41
Sig strikes attempted
50
56
Total strikes landed
34
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Michel Prazeres
"Tractor"
27-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
Blue corner
W3
Bartosz Fabinski
"The Butcher"
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—