Main
Women's Strawweight
Cynthia Calvillo vs Poliana Botelho
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio
·Parque Roca Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Cynthia Calvillo
Poliana Botelho
56%
44%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
9-7-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Calvillo: 22 sig / 2 TD ·
Botelho: 6 sig / 0 TD
Cynthia Calvillo
Poliana Botelho
28
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
86
51
Total strikes landed
55
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.4
Takedowns attempted
0.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
202s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cynthia Calvillo
9-7-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Poliana Botelho
9-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—