Back to UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio
Main Bantamweight

Guido Cannetti vs Marlon Vera

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio ·Parque Roca Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Guido Cannetti
Marlon Vera
20% 80%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
39
Age
Δ 13y
26
11-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-12-1
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cannetti: 24 sig / 2 TD · Vera: 24 sig / 2 TD
Guido Cannetti
Marlon Vera
28
Sig strikes landed
42
60
Sig strikes attempted
91
40
Total strikes landed
58
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
137s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Guido Cannetti

"Ninja"
11-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W1

Marlon Vera

"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database 9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—