Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
Main Heavyweight

Alistair Overeem vs Sergei Pavlovich

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 ·Cadillac Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Sergei Pavlovich
61% 39%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
84"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
L2
Current streak
—
14
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 22 sig / 1 TD · Pavlovich: 13 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Sergei Pavlovich
26
Sig strikes landed
35
43
Sig strikes attempted
74
35
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
90s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Alistair Overeem

"The Demolition Man"
47-20 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
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W UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
L UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
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Blue corner

Sergei Pavlovich

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27