Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
Main Heavyweight

Curtis Blaydes vs Francis Ngannou

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Francis Ngannou
67% 33%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
83"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
20-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-4
W5
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Blaydes: 1 sig / 0 TD · Ngannou: 13 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Francis Ngannou
33
Sig strikes landed
22
65
Sig strikes attempted
61
55
Total strikes landed
37
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
146s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W5

Curtis Blaydes

"Razor"
20-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 7 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
W UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
W UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
W UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
W UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
Blue corner
L2

Francis Ngannou

"The Predator"
17-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
L UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
W UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
W UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…