Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Charles Oliveira
30%
70%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
40-19
Career record
Δ 10 pp
38-11
W1
Current streak
W2
25
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Miller: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 0 sig / 1 TD
Jim Miller
Charles Oliveira
14
Sig strikes landed
27
27
Sig strikes attempted
52
30
Total strikes landed
43
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
72%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
25 fights · 14-10
Last 5
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
Blue corner
W2
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
21 fights · 12-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—