Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rob Font
Sergio Pettis
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 6y
25
22-11
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-6
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Font: 111 sig / 2 TD ·
Pettis: 71 sig / 1 TD
Rob Font
Sergio Pettis
54
Sig strikes landed
64
130
Sig strikes attempted
145
61
Total strikes landed
82
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
78s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rob Font
22-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
Blue corner
L1
Sergio Pettis
18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—