Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Dan Hooker
47%
53%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
24-15
Career record
Δ 3 pp
25-14
L2
Current streak
W4
19
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Barboza: 126 sig / 0 TD ·
Hooker: 81 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Dan Hooker
55
Sig strikes landed
56
113
Sig strikes attempted
133
57
Total strikes landed
69
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
50s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 13-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
Blue corner
W4
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
25-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—