Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Lee
Al Iaquinta
77%
23%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 7"
70"
26
Age
Δ 5y
32
19-8
Career record
Δ 10 pp
14-8-1
W1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Lee: 102 sig / 3 TD ·
Iaquinta: 111 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Lee
Al Iaquinta
65
Sig strikes landed
58
138
Sig strikes attempted
129
86
Total strikes landed
60
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
173s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
L1
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
14-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—