Prelims1
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert vs Jack Hermansson
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
·Fiserv Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Gerald Meerschaert
Jack Hermansson
58%
42%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
38-22
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-10
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Meerschaert: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Hermansson: 41 sig / 1 TD
Gerald Meerschaert
Jack Hermansson
32
Sig strikes landed
31
67
Sig strikes attempted
63
40
Total strikes landed
47
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
38-22
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
25-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—