Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jared Gordon
Joaquim Silva
69%
31%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
21-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Gordon: 116 sig / 3 TD ·
Silva: 95 sig / 1 TD
Jared Gordon
Joaquim Silva
49
Sig strikes landed
42
102
Sig strikes attempted
109
71
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
180s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
L1
Joaquim Silva
"Netto BJJ"
14-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—