Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Trevor Smith
Zak Cummings
23%
77%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
38
Age
Δ 4y
34
15-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
25-8
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Cummings: 56 sig / 0 TD
Trevor Smith
Zak Cummings
31
Sig strikes landed
29
63
Sig strikes attempted
64
49
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
145s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
15-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
L1
Zak Cummings
25-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—