Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcos Conrado Jr.
Augusto Sakai
29%
71%
Why
36
Age
Δ 9y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Conrado Jr.: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Sakai: 79 sig / 0 TD
Marcos Conrado Jr.
Augusto Sakai
31
Sig strikes landed
42
58
Sig strikes attempted
79
45
Total strikes landed
58
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
102s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marcos Conrado Jr.
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
Augusto Sakai
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27