Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rogerio Bontorin
Gustavo Gabriel
55%
45%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Bontorin: 41 sig / 2 TD ·
Gabriel: 39 sig / 0 TD
Rogerio Bontorin
Gustavo Gabriel
38
Sig strikes landed
37
76
Sig strikes attempted
78
51
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rogerio Bontorin
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Gustavo Gabriel
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24