Main
Women's Featherweight
Julija Stoliarenko vs Leah Letson
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Julija Stoliarenko
Leah Letson
53%
47%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
26
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Stoliarenko: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Letson: 73 sig / 0 TD
Julija Stoliarenko
Leah Letson
38
Sig strikes landed
38
80
Sig strikes attempted
78
68
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
175s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Julija Stoliarenko
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Leah Letson
"Nidas"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26