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Juan Espino vs Justin Frazier

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Juan Espino
Justin Frazier
52% 48%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
38
Age
Δ 9y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Espino: 22 sig / 2 TD · Frazier: 4 sig / 0 TD
Juan Espino
Justin Frazier
34
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
66
54
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
127s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Juan Espino

"El Guapo"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
Blue corner

Justin Frazier

"The Grizzly Bear"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30