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Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kamaru Usman

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Kamaru Usman
45% 55%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
32-18
Career record
Δ 21 pp
22-4
L1
Current streak
W8
22
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dos Anjos: 62 sig / 0 TD · Usman: 130 sig / 12 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Kamaru Usman
50
Sig strikes landed
69
102
Sig strikes attempted
146
74
Total strikes landed
116
1.0
Takedowns landed
5.1
5.4
Takedowns attempted
9.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
507s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Rafael Dos Anjos

32-18
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 22 fights · 16-6
Last 5
L UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W8

Kamaru Usman

"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database 8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—