Prelims1
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez vs Alex Perez
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Alex Perez
50%
50%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
34
Age
Δ 8y
27
28-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
27-10
L1
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Benavidez: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Perez: 14 sig / 1 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Alex Perez
50
Sig strikes landed
51
123
Sig strikes attempted
126
67
Total strikes landed
64
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joseph Benavidez
28-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W3
Alex Perez
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—