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Prelims1 Featherweight

Ricky Glenn vs Kevin Aguilar

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ricky Glenn
Kevin Aguilar
57% 43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Glenn: 74 sig / 0 TD · Aguilar: 86 sig / 0 TD
Ricky Glenn
Kevin Aguilar
49
Sig strikes landed
46
118
Sig strikes attempted
105
72
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ricky Glenn

"The Gladiator"
23-9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
Blue corner

Kevin Aguilar

"Angel of Death"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30