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Main Welterweight

Tim Means vs Ricky Rainey

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tim Means
Ricky Rainey
81% 19%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
35
Age
Δ 1y
35
33-18-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
12-7
L2
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Means: 19 sig / 2 TD · Rainey: 6 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Ricky Rainey
49
Sig strikes landed
35
102
Sig strikes attempted
86
67
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
102s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Tim Means

"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Ricky Rainey

"The Sniper"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
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