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Raoni Barcelos vs Chris Gutierrez

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Raoni Barcelos
Chris Gutierrez
58% 42%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Barcelos: 35 sig / 2 TD · Gutierrez: 26 sig / 0 TD
Raoni Barcelos
Chris Gutierrez
53
Sig strikes landed
41
99
Sig strikes attempted
97
73
Total strikes landed
60
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Raoni Barcelos

23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner

Chris Gutierrez

"El Guapo"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28