Main
Bantamweight
Pedro Munhoz vs Bryan Caraway
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Pedro Munhoz
Bryan Caraway
55%
45%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
21-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
21-10
W1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Munhoz: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Caraway: 20 sig / 0 TD
Pedro Munhoz
Bryan Caraway
54
Sig strikes landed
38
117
Sig strikes attempted
110
68
Total strikes landed
53
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.0
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
54s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
21-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
Blue corner
L1
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—