Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Gunnar Nelson
54%
46%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-7-1
W2
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Oliveira: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 11 sig / 2 TD
Alex Oliveira
Gunnar Nelson
21
Sig strikes landed
25
48
Sig strikes attempted
51
50
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
172s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—