🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Flyweight
Valentina Shevchenko vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Valentina Shevchenko
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
82%
18%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
27-4-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-5
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Shevchenko: 89 sig / 5 TD ·
Jedrzejczyk: 78 sig / 0 TD
Valentina Shevchenko
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
85
Sig strikes landed
102
188
Sig strikes attempted
208
120
Total strikes landed
131
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
8.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
289s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
27-4-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—