Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Hakeem Dawodu
Kyle Bochniak
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
27
Age
Δ 4y
32
14-4-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
8-6
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Dawodu: 103 sig / 0 TD ·
Bochniak: 42 sig / 2 TD
Hakeem Dawodu
Kyle Bochniak
48
Sig strikes landed
37
100
Sig strikes attempted
93
61
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
107s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Hakeem Dawodu
"Mean"
14-4-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
Blue corner
L1
Kyle Bochniak
"Killer B"
8-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—