🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Max Holloway vs Brian Ortega
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Brian Ortega
76%
24%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
28-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-5
W8
Current streak
W6
18
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 4
Holloway: 290 sig / 1 TD ·
Ortega: 110 sig / 2 TD
Max Holloway
Brian Ortega
204
Sig strikes landed
77
293
Sig strikes attempted
199
169
Total strikes landed
87
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
40s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
18 fights · 15-3
Last 5
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W6
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—