Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Diego Ferreira
Kyle Nelson
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
W2
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ferreira: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Nelson: 20 sig / 0 TD
Diego Ferreira
Kyle Nelson
36
Sig strikes landed
39
79
Sig strikes attempted
79
50
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Diego Ferreira
20-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
Blue corner
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28