Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jimi Manuwa
Thiago Santos
50%
50%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
39
Age
Δ 4y
35
17-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-11
L2
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Manuwa: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 42 sig / 1 TD
Jimi Manuwa
Thiago Santos
35
Sig strikes landed
36
67
Sig strikes attempted
75
44
Total strikes landed
51
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
92s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jimi Manuwa
"Poster Boy"
17-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—