Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Katona
Matthew Lopez
77%
23%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
17-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
10-5
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Katona: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopez: 69 sig / 4 TD
Brad Katona
Matthew Lopez
36
Sig strikes landed
36
68
Sig strikes attempted
73
68
Total strikes landed
50
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.9
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
208s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brad Katona
"Superman"
17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
L2
Matthew Lopez
10-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—