Prelims1
Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Gilbert Burns
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Gilbert Burns
49%
51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
11-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
22-11
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aubin-Mercier: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 76 sig / 3 TD
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Gilbert Burns
30
Sig strikes landed
27
66
Sig strikes attempted
63
50
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
Blue corner
L1
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—