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Devonte Smith vs Julian Erosa

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez ·Ball Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Devonte Smith
Julian Erosa
41% 59%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smith: 13 sig / 0 TD · Erosa: 4 sig / 0 TD
Devonte Smith
Julian Erosa
30
Sig strikes landed
32
70
Sig strikes attempted
59
54
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
134s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Devonte Smith

"King Kage"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
L1

Julian Erosa

"Juicy J"
31-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
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