Prelims1
Featherweight
Jason Knight vs Jordan Rinaldi
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jason Knight
Jordan Rinaldi
80%
20%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
20-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
14-8
L3
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Knight: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Rinaldi: 20 sig / 3 TD
Jason Knight
Jordan Rinaldi
40
Sig strikes landed
29
90
Sig strikes attempted
78
65
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
189s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jason Knight
"The Kid"
20-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
L1
Jordan Rinaldi
"All Day"
14-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—