Main
Middleweight
Derek Brunson vs Israel Adesanya
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Israel Adesanya
41%
59%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
35
Age
Δ 5y
29
23-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
25-6
L1
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brunson: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Adesanya: 13 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Israel Adesanya
30
Sig strikes landed
41
72
Sig strikes attempted
77
41
Total strikes landed
57
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
131s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—