Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chris Weidman
Jacare Souza
49%
51%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
39
17-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
26-11
W1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Weidman: 68 sig / 1 TD ·
Souza: 74 sig / 0 TD
Chris Weidman
Jacare Souza
38
Sig strikes landed
33
65
Sig strikes attempted
55
51
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
17-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
L1
Jacare Souza
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—