🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Daniel Cormier vs Derrick Lewis
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Cormier
Derrick Lewis
63%
37%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
79"
40
Age
Δ 6y
34
23-3
Career record
Δ 19 pp
30-13
W6
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cormier: 19 sig / 4 TD ·
Lewis: 4 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Cormier
Derrick Lewis
57
Sig strikes landed
32
87
Sig strikes attempted
71
85
Total strikes landed
50
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
301s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
12 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
W3
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—