Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
David Branch
Jared Cannonier
70%
30%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
37
Age
Δ 2y
35
23-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-10
W1
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Branch: 10 sig / 3 TD ·
Cannonier: 26 sig / 0 TD
David Branch
Jared Cannonier
26
Sig strikes landed
26
62
Sig strikes attempted
52
48
Total strikes landed
36
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
240s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
David Branch
23-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
L2
Jared Cannonier
"The Killa Gorilla"
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—