Prelims2
Featherweight
Shane Burgos vs Kurt Holobaugh
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane Burgos
Kurt Holobaugh
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
28
Age
Δ 5y
32
15-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-11
L1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Burgos: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Holobaugh: 21 sig / 0 TD
Shane Burgos
Kurt Holobaugh
67
Sig strikes landed
62
148
Sig strikes attempted
149
79
Total strikes landed
74
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
37s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
15-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
Blue corner
L2
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—