Back to UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
Prelims2 Lightweight

Matt Frevola vs Lando Vannata

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Matt Frevola
Lando Vannata
49% 51%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
28
Age
Δ 2y
27
11-7-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
12-9-2
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Frevola: 66 sig / 2 TD · Vannata: 67 sig / 1 TD
Matt Frevola
Lando Vannata
33
Sig strikes landed
40
81
Sig strikes attempted
98
45
Total strikes landed
59
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
73s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Matt Frevola

"The SteamRolla"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
Blue corner
L1

Lando Vannata

"Groovy"
12-9-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 5 fights · 1-3
Last 5
L UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
D UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
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