Prelims2
Heavyweight
Adam Wieczorek vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Adam Wieczorek
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
58%
42%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
27
Age
Δ 7y
33
11-2
Career record
Δ 20 pp
22-11-1
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wieczorek: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Rogerio de Lima: 28 sig / 3 TD
Adam Wieczorek
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
20
Sig strikes landed
20
40
Sig strikes attempted
33
38
Total strikes landed
34
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
103s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Adam Wieczorek
"Siwy"
11-2
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
Blue corner
L1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
22-11-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—