Prelims1
Featherweight
Julio Arce vs Sheymon Moraes
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julio Arce
Sheymon Moraes
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
20-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
12-4
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arce: 25 sig / 1 TD ·
Moraes: 32 sig / 0 TD
Julio Arce
Sheymon Moraes
54
Sig strikes landed
51
139
Sig strikes attempted
130
76
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
10s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Julio Arce
20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W1
Sheymon Moraes
12-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—